So here’s what I don’t understand…
Can anyone actually explain Corbyn to me?
I usually have quite a good grasp of what’s going on in politics, even if I did believe the opinion polls for the last General Election,
But Corbin? Please help me.
He may still lose, but he’s coming closer than any pseudo Marxist has since Benn did in 1982.
The hard left outside Labour is famously an election losing machine. We had sitcoms about it in the 1970s, and it’s gone downhill since then. There are no votes there.
The Greens will certainly lose out, but although they’ve picke up an impressive amount of new activists, they are a rather shadow reservoir of votes.
Sure the SNP could have trouble, but the Tories are governing with one seat north of the border and a split left wing vote may actually help them pick up seats there.
But then you get to stranger places.
The non voters. Now I may be knocking on all the wrong doors, but if they’re over (at most) 28, they’re not that left wing. They don’t like politicians granted, but you’re average non voter is an anti-establishment centrist. They are simply not engaged with politics. Corbyn could get them out right enough, to ensure he never gets in.
And UKIP voters? Yes, loads of them are ex-Labour and, yes, they dislike the “Millionaires for Labour” vibe that Blair bought in. But they really dislike practically unlimited low skilled immigration., something our Jez seems unconcerned with. And they really, really dislike, hate even, the middle class status signaling England-last attitudes that they (correctly) perceive as permeating Labour from Blairite right to hardest of hard left.
Can an IRA supporting vegetarian with a brother called Piers really win them back? There’s room for doubt.
No one has seriously suggested that he has any special appeal to Tory voters, so I won’t waste your time on demolishing that non-case, apart from pointing out that Labour has to win a few over to win again.
So we’re left with the strange things happen argument. It goes like this. Strange things happen. Corbyn is strange. Vote Corbyn.
Strange things do happen. The SNP hegemony was strange. The Lib Dem collapse was strange. The Corbyn surge is strange. There have been some good explanations after the event, but they did seem to defy political rules as they were happening.
And something is probably in the air.
But it’s still a silly argument. It’s is a stupid and unnecesarry gamble. As long as Labour isn’t supplanted as the main opposition to the Tories, and UKIP or the Lib Dems are far more likely to do that than anyone to Labour’s left, Labour just needs to sit back and benefit from the strange things happening.
I would like to make a counter-intuitive statement to finish this off, but I can’t do anything more than echo the establishment, this is nuts and is almost certain to end in tears.