The Desperation Agenda

When Cameron had a go at the serial adulteror Boris Johnson, making heavy implications about “divorce” I thought the pressure had got to him. Politicians have some pretty bright red lines that they don’t cross and opening up personal history as a legitimate line of attack is number one. Does he really think that it’s now OK for a Brexit inclined journalist to stop heavily hinting about pre-parliamentary cocaine use and actually dig something up? Or if we’re talking about marriages here to look into what certain people did on the party scene in Bristol in the 1990s?

And if a rube in the provinces knows this is a bad idea what on earth must the thousand times better informed politicos in Westminster think? Perhaps they don’t think. It often seems to happem. When Iain Duncan-Smith mentioned Charles Kennedy’s drink problem in a conference speech it wasn’t seen as a sign of strength – IDS was gone in two months.

Cameron is really, really rattled in a way that mystifies me as Remain looks like it’s cruising for a victory Perhaps he’s worse at the pressure than we all thought, perhaps he’s worried about all those Tories backing Remain who he knows have effectively ended any long term career in politics or perhaps, just perhaps, he thinks he could lose it. The referendum that is.

It’s a sign of hope I suppose.

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Can anyone explain Corbyn?

So here’s what I don’t understand…

Can anyone actually explain Corbyn to me?

I usually have quite a good grasp of what’s going on in politics, even if I did believe the opinion polls for the last General Election,

But Corbin? Please help me.

He may still lose, but he’s coming closer than any pseudo Marxist has since Benn did in 1982.

The hard left outside Labour is famously an election losing machine. We had sitcoms about it in the 1970s, and it’s gone downhill since then. There are no votes there.

The Greens will certainly lose out, but although they’ve picke up an impressive amount of new activists, they are a rather shadow reservoir of votes.

Sure the SNP could have trouble, but the Tories are governing with one seat north of the border and a split left wing vote may actually help them pick up seats there.

But then you get to stranger places.

The non voters. Now I may be knocking on all the wrong doors, but if they’re over (at most) 28, they’re not that left wing. They don’t like politicians granted, but you’re average non voter is an anti-establishment centrist. They are simply not engaged with politics. Corbyn could get them out right enough, to ensure he never gets in.

And UKIP voters? Yes, loads of them are ex-Labour and, yes, they dislike the “Millionaires for Labour” vibe that Blair bought in. But they really dislike practically unlimited low skilled immigration., something our Jez seems unconcerned with. And they really, really dislike, hate even, the middle class status signaling England-last attitudes that they (correctly) perceive as permeating Labour from Blairite right to hardest of hard left.

Can an IRA supporting vegetarian with a brother called Piers really win them back? There’s room for doubt.

No one has seriously suggested that he has any special appeal to Tory voters, so I won’t waste your time on demolishing that non-case, apart from pointing out that Labour has to win a few over to win again.

So we’re left with the strange things happen argument. It goes like this. Strange things happen. Corbyn is strange. Vote Corbyn.

Strange things do happen. The SNP hegemony was strange. The Lib Dem collapse was strange. The Corbyn surge is strange. There have been some good explanations after the event, but they did seem to defy political rules as they were happening.

And something is probably in the air.

But it’s still a silly argument.  It’s is a stupid and unnecesarry gamble. As long as Labour isn’t supplanted as the main opposition to the Tories, and UKIP or the Lib Dems are far more likely to do that than anyone to Labour’s left, Labour just needs to sit back and benefit from the strange things happening.

I would like to make a counter-intuitive statement to finish this off, but I can’t do anything more than echo the establishment, this is nuts and is almost certain to end in tears.

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Let the deluge commence

Jeremy Corbyn is an attractive character with unattractive policies that will consign Labour to history.  People who dislike the more electable favours-for-your-mates incompetence of mainstream Labour can sign up as a supporter and vote for Corbyn (a handy step by step guide is here).

We know that.  We also know that Labour have said that they will disenfranchise all Tory voting people who sign up as suppporters.

But how do they know?

Will they check every social media account of every signed up supporter and get the local branches to vouch for the new supporter?  Or will they rely on denunciations from other Labour supporters?

But how will they know if these denunciations are true?

If the anti-socialist trouble makers were to start their own campaign of denouncing Labour bloggers, councillors and supporters then this could cause chaos.  Either lots of genuine Labour supporters would be disenfranchised, the vetting would grind to a halt or Labour HQ would spend all their time investigating false allegations and no time doing the stuff they are paid for.

Now this is only a thought game and it would be a very, very irresponsible course of action and I don’t want to encourage anyone to do this.  Never.  That would be naughty.

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Five ways to rig a referendum

Before we get to even cast the first ballot in the EU Plebiscite the euro-elite are doing a victory jig.  They’ve got it in the bag, it’s a fix.  That’s not me, that’s Jean-Claude Juncker the President of the European Commission, who has claimed that we have “no chance” of voting for independence and said Cameron use the vote to “dock his country permanently to Europe”.

So how will they do this?  There will be no ballot tampering or secret arrests, but this very British coup is being done in the cold light of day, and whether you want us to stay or leave, it does good to recognise how it’s happening as it’s a masterclass in misdirection.

1.  Fix the question

A fairly innocuous question “Should the UK remain a member of the EU?”  But in Scotland it was “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”  This is because referendums are about change, and so the main point should be about the change on offer.

Plebiscites on the other hand are about giving your assent to what your rulers want to do, and so the chosen line must be positive and jaunty, hence the importance of getting the Yes side of the ballot paper.

2. Only let the other side spend half

Even if the individual donors on the no side raise double what the boardrooms and trade unions on the Yes side raise, they will only be allowed to spend less than half of what the Yes side spends. Yep, that’s in the legislation.

3.  Then get the taxpayer to pick up the slack

In the Scottish referendum there was a concept of “purdah” where the government was not allowed to publish propaganda for the pro-Union case for the month before the referendum.  Guess what other ground-breaking  innovation Cameron has shoehorned into the referendum bill.,  Yep, that safeguard has gone too.

4.  Lie that you have concessions

Cameron will say that he has concessions, and they are meaningful and meaty concessions.  Well he can’t get them.  For any concession to be bullet proof from the EU institutions (as our rebate is, much to the annoyance of the rest of the Europe) it has to be baked into treaties.  Otherwise once the referendum is safely out of the way it can be overturned by the Commission, a super-majority in the Council of Ministers or a European Court of Justice ruling – and there will be no appeal.  Juncker has said that this will not happen until 2019.

5. Don’t let a debate even start 

Nine cabinet ministers are already, but unlike in 1975 they aren’t allowed to say and closer to the plebiscite will have to resign if they don’t follow the party line.  Even Ken Clarke thinks that’s barmy.

 

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Election spending

Is no-one complaining about David Ellesmere’s election communication that came with our council tax demand?

This is surely busting his election expenses, an abuse of his position as a councillor and surchgargeable on Labour group councillors as political expenditure.

IBC communication

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The icing on the cake

So this same sex “marriage” thing was all about freedom, was it?

Those of us who opposed it said that people would be forced to “approve” of same sex “marriages” and no doubt unicorns, talking cats and other impossible things that our rulers wish us to approve of before breakfast.

We now learn that David Cameron’s government (enthusiastic Ipswich representative one B Gummer) want to close down a Belfast bakery because they have the temerity not to support gay marriage.

My few regular readers know that I’m never surprised to be proved right, but this time Guido Fawkes says this best,When the government passed gay marriage they vowed religious beliefs would be respected, instead the state is persecuting anyone who does not conform to their ‘progressive’ views…

 

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Medlin Spencer RIP

I haven’t been posting here for some time largely due to the untimely death of my wife Medlin two weeks ago. Grief has made me do some unusual things, but updating this blog is not one of them.

Her funeral is tomorrow at 12 noon, Monday 27th September, in St Pancras Church Ipswich. Further details are here.

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